The Lottery Paradox

It is impossible to win the lottery, yet somebody still always manages to do it.  Nevertheless, it is a statistical near certainty that a given ticket in one's possession will not have the winning number on it. Because it is impossible to win the lottery.

So it also is with the odds of being a victim of terrorism. In the last thirty years, including 2001, an American was in fact more likely to win the lottery (and that's impossible!) than to die in a terrorist attack. Since 9/11, about 1 American a year (One. That's the number that's more than 0 but less than 2. Out of 319 million.) has died in an act of terror perpetrated by a person of foreign birth. Terrorism occurs; but the likelihood of it happening to a specific person is vanishingly small*, even in spite of the hubris of thinking that way.  Even knowing that horrible stories always feature someone saying, “I didn’t think it could happen to me”-- almost as though thinking that way is what caused it-- they were really right to think it (or to not think the opposite).

Sometimes when I’m worried about my wife being late getting home without letting me know, on those rare (and getting rarer) occasions when circumstances prevent me from learning where she is and why she's not home yet and from doing anything about it, it makes me feel almost instantly better when I realize how extremely unlikely it is that the reason she is late and I don’t know about it is that something bad has happened.

I’m just blathering about this because it was on my mind, not because I feel especially qualified to counsel on the subject.  Since it would be good to have money handed to me about now, I was thinking originally in terms of the lottery, i.e., in terms of something abnormally good happening; but it occurred to me only later that the consolation of this principle is that it's equally applicable to certain especially unlikely, extraordinarily bad things.

The situation with respect to probability is of course no consolation to those unfortunate enough to find themselves the deliberately random victims of the nihilistic, anti-human, misdirected aims of terrorists (always wrong, regardless of who sponsors them or of what inspired or provoked them). But if you were looking for a reason to live without fear, to not yet give in to terrorists or to the terror-engendering terror-perpetrating anti-terrorist state apparatus that fosters, commits and thrives on terrorism and on the irrational fear of terrorists who are not them, this may be it.  Lottery winners, on the other hand, will need to return their money.**

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Department of Qualification:

* In parts of the world not embroiled in active upheaval certainly-- and peace and solidarity be with those not in those parts

** Of course if I win the lottery or die in a terrorist attack tonight, please disregard.  < :insert winky face: >

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 [See a more thorough description of  Kyburg's Lottery Paradox here and do not miss Smullyan's variation, which observes in effect that while only a conceited person would think that every single belief they have is true, nevertheless we all believe each one of our individual beliefs in turn.]