Who's afraid of Virginia?

Mark Herring, Ralph Northam and Justin Fairfax

It may be hard to believe but unspeakable (as heck) holds almost no sway over political outcomes in Virginia, a state we do not reside in.  Nevertheless, we feel compelled to speak about recent developments in the commonwealth in an effort to attempt to shine some light on the significance and implications of an absurdly chaotic series of unfortunate events in recent days.  At this writing, we don't know how we feel about it, but we hope to correct that through the application of our patented method of reasoning and crafting of pleasing sounding sentences in the service, we hope, of getting at truth in some measure, however ugly or inconvenient.

As a refresher, Ralph Northam won a surprisingly decisive victory over republican Ed Gillespie in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election, in what many saw as a referendum on Trump a year into his presidency.  Northam had openly made a case for himself as an anti-Trump in political ads throughout the campaign (in one of which he famously referred to the president as a "narcissistic maniac"), and in response, Trump had heavily endorsed longtime Republican operative Gillespie in typical fashion, on Twitter.   Gillespie himself had not so subtly taken the side of the Charlottesville white-supremacists (and the dog-whistler-in-chief) on the question of preserving confederate statues in Virginia.  In an election that had the highest voter turnout in 20 years, Northam defeated Gillespie by nearly 9 percentage points, 53.9% to 45.0%.   More than 33% in exit polls said their vote was in protest of Trump, versus less than 20% who reported their vote to be cast in support of the new president.  Northam received more than 80% of the African American vote-- an increase from the prior gubernatorial election. 

A year later, it's clear that Northam has made good on his promise with several initiatives: most notably expansion of Medicaid and raising of the minimum threshold for grand larceny in the state from $200 to $500 (a small move with big positive consequences for the state's most desperate citizens).  In keeping with the theme of decriminalizing poverty, initiatives for 2019 include relaxing of marijuana laws, and strengthening and expanding arenas in which women can exercise choice in family planning.  In December Northam released a budget increasing financial aid and tuition grants and requiring schools in Virginia to adhere to standards ensuring predictability in raising tuition.  Also included was increased expenditure on affordable housing and funds earmarked for legal and rent assistance to reduce Virginia's eviction rate, one of the highest in the nation.  In essence, his administration has been vigilant in keeping the needs of Virginia's poorest on the agenda-- vindicating the hopes of those who elected him. This is in the state that gave us the confederacy, George Mason University and the cruelly ironically named "public choice economics."  This is in the state that rather than integrate schools as mandated by the Supreme Court's Brown vs. Board decision in the 1950's closed public schools where that could happen for up to five years.

For this reason, the stealth reveal of racist content on Northam's 1984 Medical School yearbook page (discovered by the Breitbart affiliated pro-Trump Republican propaganda outlet out of North Carolina, Big League Politics-- conveniently and probably not coincidentally in the heat of debate on a bill to roll back invasive requirements for women seeking abortions in Virginia behind which Northam was throwing his support and his nuanced medical expertise) produced the expected reaction: public outrage, shock and dismay, and rapidly escalating calls for Northam's resignation most notably from nearly every major democratic figure in Virginia including Virginia's first and so far only African American governor, democrat Douglas Wilder as well as Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, the African American democratic leader who first recruited Northam to run for office.  And so it should have-- the photo appearing directly under his name was of someone (was it Northam?) dressed as an outrageously racist stereotype in blackface glad-handing with someone (Northam?) in Ku Klux Klan robes, drinks in hand.  Northam apologized within hours for his poor judgment in appearing in the photo although he did not say which figure was him.  His backpedaling on appearing in the photograph the next day did not help his case which was further murked up by his admission that while not in the photo on his yearbook page he had worn blackface to impersonate Michael Jackson on another occasion later that year in order to enter a dance contest performing a moonwalk.  Northam was 24 when his medical school yearbook was issued and 25 at the time of the dance contest.  By all accounts, whether he was in the yearbook photo or not, the photo was likely submitted for inclusion on his page, under his name by Northam himself.  If true, who can fathom the reason?

It was not difficult to see the day the story broke that perhaps Northam's past had justifiably caught up with him in a way that necessitated his resignation from office.  Northam, a privileged child of the Eastern shore of Virginia (like so many in the south, rich and poor, the great great grandson of a slave owner as he reportedly discovered only recently when his father had the family's genealogy done) graduated as salutatorian from Virginia Military Institute in 1981, and followed that with 3 years at Eastern Virginia Medical School of notorious yearbook fame*.  He served in the army for 8 years afterward, retiring after serving in the Gulf War in 1991, during which he tended to the wounded at Landstuhl Regional Medical Facility in Germany.  On returning to the states he practiced as a pediatric neurologist at Johns Hopkins, specializing in epilepsy.  He describes himself as apolitical throughout this period, by way of explaining votes cast for George W Bush in 2000 and 2004 prior to running for public office for the Virginia State Senate for the first time, as a Democrat in 2007.   Perhaps he accepted the call from the party to run as a  Democrat for strategic reasons since he was unopposed in his first primary, however if so, the strategy paid off in that he defeated his Republican 2-time incumbent opponent by nearly 10% his first time out.  From the start he pursued liberal legislation with a great deal of success.  His ascent through Virginia politics thereafter was rapid, culminating in a term as Lt Governor under his predecessor in the Governor's office Terry McAuliffe before Northam's successful gubernatorial candidacy in 2017.

Calling for Northam to resign when his voluntary resignation was not forthcoming was a no-brainer on Saturday when that meant handing the office to his Lieutenant Governor, Justin Fairfax, who would be Virginia's second African American governor.  But by Monday evening a story had broken, again on Big League Politics that hinted almost unambiguously that Fairfax had forced Vanessa Tyler, now an associate professor of politics at Scripps College in Claremont, California, to perform oral sex on him in 2004 during the Democratic National Convention in Boston.  Fairfax denied the allegation.  The Washington Post had been given the story in 2018 but been unable to corroborate it.   However on Friday a second woman alleged that Fairfax had raped her when both were students at Duke University in 2000.  Now both Northam and Fairfax looked done for in Virginia politics.  Almost before anyone had a chance to recognize that next in the line of succession was Attorney General Mark Herring, Herring volunteered a confession and an apology that he himself had made a poor decision as 17 year old high school student to wear black face and a wig to impersonate rapper Kurtis Blow at a party.

If it sounds like a Republic dream come true it's because to a large extent it is.  Should Northam, Fairfax and Herring all be forced to resign (or be removed) from their offices, the next in line for Governor would be Kirk Cox, speaker of the Virginia House and a Republican.  While Virginia's constitution stipulates that a governor cannot succeed him or herself, Cox being unelected would most likely be allowed to run for the office 'for real' at the end of his term and if successful would have the longest incumbency of any modern Virginia governor.  (It's interesting to note that Kirk Cox was chosen by chance as speaker when he tied with another Republican in votes for the job and his name was pulled out of a hat to decide the matter as required by House procedures.)

So the question at hand is should Northam resign? As of this writing, the governor appears to have decided for himself that the answer is no, but the matter feels far from settled.  Republicans of course are gleefully rubbing their hands over the possibility of a trifecta-- in essence a coup by attrition-- in Virginia.  On a recent Bill Maher, former Georgia Congressman and current Trump mouthpiece Jack Kingston suggested that there might be hypocrisy in Democrats giving Northam a pass on a racist yearbook photo when Brett Kavanaugh was called on questionable behavior in his past in his nomination process for a Supreme Court seat,  (never mind that his nomination was pushed through in spite of the damning testimony against him). But, Kavanaugh's behavior was not merely offensive.  Kavanaugh's behavior had actual victims.  And while Kavanaugh's judicial behavior demonstrates that his professional attitudes remain stunted at his high school mentality, Northam's legislative accomplishments and goals speak of growth and reform. It isn't up to me, and that is how it should be.  But I'm inclined to agree with Dahleen Glanton of the Chicago Tribune that in this case, the political motives of those outing Northam's past should not be shrugged off as irrelevant.

But let's ask the people of Virginia what they think.  A Washington Post poll tonight indicates that Virginians are evenly split (47% to 47%) on whether he should remain in office.  Tellingly, while whites narrowly favor Northam's departure (48% to 46%), African American Virginians are strongly in favor of Northam remaining in office by 58% to 37%.

Not quite so open and shut to those to whom it matters most.
~~~~~
* Eastern Virginia Medical School's wikipedia page reports a tradition of raucous collegiality among the small student body including a custom of dressing up in costume according to theme on Match Day each spring, when the graduating class receives notification of where they will be spending their residencies.  The tradition was ended by the school in 2016.  Furious searching has failed to turn up the theme for Match Day 1984.