Four years ago, at this exact stage of the 2020 election cycle, Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump in national polls by 9 percentage points. His worst polling in July 2020 had him 4 points up. This year, in a year of bad polling news, Biden is 3 points behind Trump -- a point of comparison adding extra concern for Democrats in light of Biden's abysmal debate performance of a couple of weeks ago.* It's easy for Dems to tell themselves the bad polling and Biden's debate performance are related-- it's a good story that reflects less poorly on Dems for supposedly not seeing it coming (if you can believe that they did not see it coming for 4 years and weren't furiously crossing their fingers that it wouldn't blow up before November). The truth is that the truism peddled by Democratic operatives that Joe Biden was the only candidate who could beat Trump in 2020 and would be the only who could do so in 2024 was a lie that the faithful losing faith were proffered to hang their last remaining willingness to believe on. The lie has been inconveniently exposed by the incumbent himself. Joe Biden has failed upward his entire career. A serial plagiarist, liar, constituent glommer, bald-faced donor pleasurer, unilateral bi-partisan hack and perpetual also-ran for decades, I fully expected him to stick with his pattern of self-implosion in the 2020 primary season-- an outcome that seemed assured until Barack Obama stepped in after a string of Biden losses in the early states and strong-armed the competition to step aside for his former veep. To my eyes, Biden was already creaky and leaky by that point, so it did not surprise me that he chose the strategy of remaining out of view of the electorate throughout the spring and summer. And I thought then that surely the Biden self-own was coming. But instead COVID happened and Trump, who could have used the excuse of his essential outsider status to become a hero and vanquish COVID while keeping people well and housed and taken care of, screwed it up so badly that Biden actually crept by him in the general (Trump's post-election fabrications to the contrary).
Well it seems that for his grand finale, Biden has opted for an epic return to form. As for the Dems now crawling over each other to urge Biden to step aside from the re-election campaign he already sealed the nomination for, what do you make of a party that enables a plainly deteriorated candidate to complete a charade of a primary in utter silence only to let the candidate twist in the wind in front of a nationwide audience, and only then to clamor for someone else at the top of their ticket? Were they asleep before? Are they bullshitting us now? Why would anyone trust this sleeping bullshitting party that has only one goal (to defeat Trump) and no plan to carry it out?
This is not to let the media off the hook. (Including many of the left alt media). I don't have the stomach to actually watch the circus except when compelled by morbid curiosity (and was mercifully mostly unable to avail myself of a television to even catch a glimpse by accident on my recent vacation). But my spidey sense is that the panic has permeated the class. I just think it’s the most disingenuous panic I’ve ever seen. More like they’ve been meaning to do something about this but couldn’t get their shit together until no one could deny there was a problem. This ranks with some of my worst fuckups from adolescence.
The sad truth is, the near universal goal of democratic voters to defeat Trump is at this late stage both the single most important thing that nose-holding democratic voters can hope for from this party, and a critically imperiled possibility thanks to the chronic Beta-nature of professional Democrats.
In an alternate universe, Joe Biden voluntarily steps aside soon in some dignified fashion and is replaced by-- it almost doesn't matter who or by what process-- let's say a strong and sturdy hatrack. Instead of coasting through the remainder of the campaign with eyes covered and letting the chips fall where they may (as surely Biden himself could just as easily still manage), the message becomes "Vote Hatrack for Economic Security; for investment in Planet saving technology; for universal freedom of choice to parent or not and the means to enable it; for peace in Ukraine and in Gaza and more peace in general in the world; a fix to a broken political system and judiciary; and an invitation to Americans and American well-wishers the world over to help re-shape the direction of the country to ensure a better future for all." thus ensuring a resounding victory in November and the start of a brand new Hatrack era come January.
In this universe, anyone who has been informed of the fascistic chaos that Trump and his enablers have planned instead in the event Biden loses four months from now, must come to grips with the stark reality that Trump cannot win. This is not alarmism-- we have seen it coming for years. The European surprises of the past weekend in the UK and France (and also in Iran) bucking the global trend of illiberal fascistic nationalism would seem to give some hope for November in the US. But the US is not the UK or France. Coalitions of the left are not possible. As luxurious as third party voting is, saying that it is not recommended except in the most certainly bluest or reddest states is to my mind saying third party voting is a rather frivolous and pointless luxury we can't afford in any state (given our current entrenched and stupid winner take all duopoly). Instead, we need to elect whoever is not Trump in November and if we are serious about change, start immediately to build the solidarity on the left to push whoever is at the top of what comes next toward the world we are all trying to build. That message you want to send to the duopoly by voting for Jill Stein in Flea Butt, Idaho on some Tuesday in November is a fart in the wind compared to the message we can send together shoulder to shoulder in the street with one of those spineless Democrats in the White House.
We tried to tell you when it was not too late. It's too late.
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* Figures the day I go on vacation.
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